WELKE GARANTIE GEEFT HET DELTAPROGRAMMA?
Door: W. Borm, adviesgroepbormenhuijgens.nl
De overheid was genoeg gewaarschuwd, maar na de Watersnoodramp mocht niemand zich afvragen wie er verantwoordelijk was voor de zwakke dijken en voor het gebrek aan coördinatie. Noodhulp moest op gang komen. Niet zeuren, eerst de dijken dicht en de rest kwam later wel. Maar er kwam geen vervolgonderzoek meer, niet in het parlement, niet bij Rijkswaterstaat, niet bij de waterschappen, noch bij de pers. Inmiddels zijn de waterschappen gefuseerd, is er een Unie van Waterschappen en een Adviescommissie Water, beschikken we over het Deltafonds en staat de Deltacommissaris aan het roer. Dat zou een veilig gevoel moeten geven, maar willen we het hoofd boven water houden, dan zou men volgens de Adviesgroep Borm & Huijgens (B&H) bij het Deltaprogramma toch nog van koers moeten veranderen.
Net de dans ontsprongen
De Sinterklaasstorm toonde de kwetsbaarheid van zandsuppleties voor de kust en rivieroverstromingen, als gevolg van zware regenval, komen in West-Europa steeds meer voor. Puur toeval dat ons nog niets is overkomen. Meer gewaarschuwd kunnen we niet worden en toch lijkt het bijna of men alsnog op een ramp wacht. De landelijke Stuurgroep Deltaprogramma is bij de verzending van de stuurgroepstukken van 4 juni 2014 hierop geattendeerd, maar het blijft de vraag of deze waarschuwing wordt meegenomen. Er is wel wat moed voor nodig om op basis van nieuwe inzichten de planvorming over een andere boeg te gooien.
Averechtse planvorming
Een afsluitbare kustlijn is een eerste prioriteit, maar nog altijd kiest het Deltaprogramma niet voor afronding van de door de Zuiderzeewerken en de Deltawerken ingezette kustlijnverkorting. En dat terwijl bij de komende Schelde Delta Expo van 2 oktober 2014 de Westerscheldepoort een prominente plaats inneemt.
Bij de kustbescherming is niet gekozen voor een duurzame en effectieve methode, maar maakt men, tegen de natuurlijke processen in, gebruik van culminerende en relatief dure zandsuppletie. Een estuarium, waarmee we voldoen aan de internationale afspraken over vismigratie, komt er voorlopig niet. Het tegengaan van verzilting valt niet te rijmen met het binnenhalen van zout en zee-invloed. In een tijd van mondiale zoetwaterschaarste laat men de zoetwatervoorraden slinken, inlaatpunten worden verlegd en het merendeel van het zoete water stroomt blijvend ongebruikt in zee via een open gebleven Nieuwe Waterweg. Zeeuwse eilanden worden hierdoor aan het zoetwaterinfuus gelegd, terwijl men er juist droogte en verzilting dient te voorkomen.
De herijking van de landelijke zoetwaterverdeling (2009-2015) heeft voor zover we weten niet plaatsgevonden. De oude meerlaagsveiligheid is zo goed als verdwenen en een nieuwe bestaat vooral op papier. Tel daar nog eens bij op dat de dijken voor een derde niet eens voldoen aan de verouderde normen van 1960 en u krijgt een beeld van de situatie waarin we ons bevinden.
Snel en ondoordacht
Begin 2009, nog voor de aanvang van de tweede Werkconferentie Zuidwestelijke Delta (ZWD), werd een convenant gesloten om het Volkerak-Zoommeer te verzilten. Dit voornemen heeft vervolgens velen op het verkeerde been gezet en tot op nationaal niveau de gang van zaken beïnvloed. De stuurgroep ZWD besteedde haar planvorming uit aan een landschapsarchitectenbureau, dat een regionaal plan maakte gebaseerd op ‘samenhang per bekken’. Als gevolg van dit al te voortvarend handelen, kwam er het Uitvoeringsprogramma ZWD, dat niet eens bijdraagt aan waterveiligheid en zoetwatervoorziening. Het is eerder een ecologisch en waterloopkundig schrikbeeld dan toekomstmuziek. Toch meldt de uitnodiging voor de Conferentie ZWD van 19 juni 2014 het volgende: “De afgelopen vijf jaar heeft de stuurgroep, samen met overheden, ondernemers en maatschappelijke partijen, hard gewerkt aan een strategie die moet zorgen voor een klimaatbestendig veilige, economisch vitale en ecologisch veerkrachtige delta, nu en in de toekomst.”
Dordrecht en Randstad in gevarenzone
Bij hoge rivieraanvoeren wordt het water nog eens versneld doorgevoerd als gevolg van de maatregelen van Ruimte voor de Rivier, zonder dat er voldoende noodberging voorhanden is. De berging die alsnog ingezet gaat worden, het Volkerak-Zoommeer, is marginaal en kwetsbaar. En dat terwijl het mogelijk is om een complete deltaberging te maken in de relicten van de voormalige zeegaten. Deze kunnen omgevormd worden tot een volwaardig estuarium, waarbij doorstroming het milieu verbetert en de zoutgrens verder zeewaarts komt te liggen.
Juist voor Dordrecht en omgeving is het van levensbelang dat zee en rivieren niet in dit stedelijk gebied elkaar ontmoeten, maar dat het omslagpunt opschuift naar de Grevelingen. Met een estuarium kan de situatie uit het oogpunt van waterveiligheid, zoetwatervoorziening en ecologie aanzienlijk verbeteren.
Gebrek aan participatie
Wanneer we voorlopig de balans opmaken mogen we constateren dat het Deltaprogramma ons landvoor een groot deel verder in de problemen brengt. We vragen ons af waarom de landelijke stuurgroep niet beter anticipeert op de huidige situatie, maar kunnen daar geen eenduidig antwoord op geven. Is er sprake van een gebrek aan zelfreflectie, te weinig koppeling aan een lange termijn visie, wordt er te weinig geadviseerd en onderzocht door deskundigen, kabbelt alles nu eenmaal voort op basis van consensus en draagvlak, is het korte termijn politiek of zijn het persoonlijke belangen die boven het landsbelang gesteld worden?
Door het Directoraat Generaal Ruimte en Water werd in november 2013 het overleg over het gepresenteerde raamwerk voor een tweede Deltaplan eenvoudig afgesloten met de opmerking dat het niet past in het huidige Deltaprogramma en er nauwelijks draagvlak voor is. En daarmee was de kous af; geen onderzoek, geen feiten en geen toetsing aan de wettelijke doelen, waterveiligheid en zoetwatervoorziening. En dat terwijl de gecombineerde visies van meerdere deskundigen meer dan de moeite waard zijn om nader te bestuderen.
De samenstellers van het Deltaprogramma mogen er eens bij stilstaan dat het zelf gecreëerde draagvlak geen garantie biedt tot welslagen.
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