WESTERMAR KAN IJSSELMEERKUST REDDEN
Door: Sjerp de Jong
Door het vormen van een nieuw meer in het IJsselmeer kan er worden voorkomen dat de Friese steden en dorpen moeten worden aangepast. Dit najaar verscheen het rapport “Samen werken met water, bevindingen van de Deltacommissie 2008”. In dit rapport wordt uitgegaan van een bovengrens van de mogelijkheden van de gedane aannames. Dit is wat anders dan wat het meest waarschijnlijk is. Reden van deze werkwijze: de grote mate van onzekerheid en de lange duur van de voorspellingen. Maar door geregeld waar te nemen hoe het werkelijk gaat en te vergelijken met het voorspellingsmodel kan men de stand bijhouden. En dan later bijsturen.
Voor het IJsselmeer is van belang aanbeveling nummer 11. Deze luidt: “Het peil van het IJsselmeer wordt met maximaal 1,5 m verhoogd. Daarmee kan tot na 2100 onder vrij verval worden gespuid op de Waddenzee. Het peil van het Markermeer wordt niet verhoogd. Het IJsselmeer behoudt zijn strategische functie als zoetwaterreservoir voor Noord-Nederland, Noord-Holland en, vanwege de dieper indringende zouttong in de Nieuwe Waterweg, voor West-Nederland.
Tot 2050: Uitvoer van de maatregelen om de peilstijging te realiseren, kan geleidelijk gebeuren. Gestreefd moet worden naar een zo groot mogelijke zoetwatervoorraad rond 2050. Onderzocht moet worden welke maatregelen nodig zijn om de inrichting van de benedenloop van de IJssel en het Zwarte Water aan te passen aan een verhoging van het IJsselmeerpeil met 1,5 m.
Tot 2100: Afhankelijk van de gefaseerde aanpak zijn nog maatregelen nodig om tot een peilstijging van 1,5 m te komen.”
Gevolgen
Het IJsselmeer heeft nu een zomerpeil van 20 centimeter beneden NAP. De stijging met 150 centimeter zou dan 130 centimeter boven NAP zijn. Dat heeft nogal wat consequenties voor de IJsselmeerkust. De historische structuur van het huidige landschap wordt aangetast. De waardevolle stads- en dorpgezichten lopen gevaar en moeten achter een dijk worden weggestopt. De toegang vanuit de Friese boezem tot het IJsselmeer wordt moeilijker door sluizen. Recreatiemogelijkheden, die ontwikkeld zijn, verdwijnen of moeten opnieuw worden opgebouwd. Bij de buitendijkse bebouwde gebieden moet men bedenken dat bij herstructurering van bedrijventerreinen en bij nieuwbouw van woningen, de gebouwen en terreinen op een beduidend hoger niveau gebouwd moeten worden. De buitendijks gelegen landbouw- en natuurgebieden langs het IJsselmeer gaan grotendeels verloren. Er ontstaat kwel in het westen van Fryslân. Een positief gevolg is dat het verhogen van het IJsselmeerpeil betekent dat er meer water beschikbaar is voor aanvoer naar de Friese boezem. Bij Lemmer en Teroelsterkolk wordt in de zomer water ingelaten voor Groningen en Fryslân. Dit kan in de toekomst bij droogte, en om verzilting, tegen te gaan gunstig zijn.
Opmerkingen
De plannen van de Deltacommissie geven toch wel aanleiding tot opmerkingen.
De vraag is of een verhoging van 150 centimeter nodig is. Het is alleen bij het meest extreme KNMI scenario dat de huidige strategie niet toereikend is om in droge zomers de waterbehoefte van Noord- en West Nederland te dekken. De vraag is of dit meest extreme scenario ooit zal worden behaald. Zeespiegels dalen en rijzen nou eenmaal altijd en niemand kan daarover zeer precies voorspellen. De klimaatdiscussie is totaal irrelevant in deze, we wonen in een gebied wat nou eenmaal kan overstromen. Wel is het zo dat, naarmate de zeespiegel meer rijst, en/of het land sneller inklinkt, de kosten van het droogpompen en het tegengaan van de verzilting toenemen. Tot op de centimeter voorspellen heeft niet zoveel zin. Een systeem van “worse case scenario” is niet zo erg als je maar een goed systeem van monitoren kiest en geen beslissingen neemt, die later overbodig blijken te zijn. Een systeem van gefaseerde uitvoering, waar de beslissingen later worden genomen op grond van de gerealiseerde veranderingen, verdient de voorkeur.
De Deltacommissie baseert zich op de zomer, met tekorten aan zoet water. In de andere seizoenen zijn er geen tekorten. Het regime kan in de andere seizoenen anders zijn dan in de zomer. De commissie spreekt zich daar niet over uit.
Het Markermeer wordt buiten de plannen voor hoog water in het IJsselmeer gehouden. Zou het Markermeer wel verhoogd worden, dan was 110 centimeter verhoging al genoeg geweest. Als redenen hiervoor noemt de commissie dat er al een afscheiding is tussen IJsselmeer en Markermeer door de Houtribsluizen en teven hoeven dan de (landschappelijk waardevolle geachte) waterkeringen van Noord-Holland niet te worden aangepast. Ook geeft een gelijkblijvend peil helderheid over de ontwikkelingen van Almere en Amsterdam volgens de Deltacommissie. Willen wij in Fryslân ook niet zo’n positie? Ook om het IJsselmeer maar te verdiepen (in het midden) en dit zoet water dan maar op te pompen als het nodig is, is niet meegenomen.
Grotere spuicapaciteit
Duidelijk is dat de spuicapaciteit moet worden vergroot in de afsluitdijk. De afsluitdijk moet ook worden vernieuwd. Voornamelijk in de winter is een grotere afvoer vanuit de rivieren te verwachten. Maar ook Fryslân heeft een grotere spuicapaciteit nodig. Via het Lauwersmeer en bij Harlingen kan er nu op de Waddenzee gespuid worden. Bij wind uit de noordelijke streken is de ebstand soms te hoog om (veel) water te spuien. De boezem heeft maar een beperkte capaciteit. Pompen bij Stavoren (Hooglandgemaal) en Lemmer ( Woudagemaal) bieden dan uitkomst. In extreme omstandigheden worden de poldergemalen stilgelegd. Door het maken van een dijk in het IJsselmeer is er een mogelijkheid om naast het Lauwersmeer een tweede afstromingsmeer te maken. Ik noem dit meer maar even voor het gemak de Westermar. Dat meer zou dan 3 kilometer uit de Friese IJsselmeerkust komen, vanaf Kormwerderzand tot aan Lemmer. Havens van Stavoren (Johan Friso kanaal) en Lemmer ( Prinses Margrietsluis) kunnen wel of niet direct aan het IJsselmeer of aan het tussenmeer, de Westermar, komen te liggen. Als de Westermar wordt onderbroken door een vaarweg dan kunnen via een U-buis de delen gekoppeld worden. Makkum en Workum kunnen sluizen krijgen voor de scheepvaart. In de Westermar is in de zomer een peil vergelijkbaar met het huidige peil (-20 centimeter beneden NAP) te verwachten. In het winterhalfjaar moet er een peil, gebaseerd op de ebstand op de Waddenzee, te realiseren zijn van ongeveer – 0,75 tot 1 meter beneden NAP. Compensatie voor het verkleinen van het IJsselmeer kan worden gevonden door het Markermeer enkele centimeters hoger op te zetten in de zomer. In de zomer zijn geen stormen en de dijken worden gebouwd op winterpeil.
Dit plan zou een lozingscapaciteit opleveren voor de Friese boezem. Steden en dorpen hoeven niet te worden aangepast. Afstroming geniet de voorkeur boven pompen: dit is ook een uitgangspunt bij de Deltacommissie. Afstromen gaat in de regel ook sneller dan pompen. Dit zou in ieder geval tot 2030 als afstroming gebruikt kunnen worden en afhankelijk van de zeespiegelrijzing vermoedelijk ook daarna. De sluizen van Kornwerderzand kunnen zo ingericht worden dan niet alleen het Friese water maar ook het IJsselmeerwater kan worden geloosd. Financiering moet mogelijk zijn uit het Deltafonds.
Door deze optie kan Fryslân beschermd worden door een extra meer, een goedkope en veilige afstroming, een extra dijk, extra werkgelegenheid en extra kansen op gebied van recreatie en veiligheid.
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