HET PEILBEHEER MOET DYNAMISCHER
Een nieuw beslismodel op basis van weersverwachtingen kan variatie van het Friese peil opleveren, de veiligheid verhogen en de kosten verminderen
Het laatste jaar is er in Fryslân nagedacht over een andere manier van peilbeheer. Al eerder werd natuurlijk peilbeheer voorgesteld. Ik meen dat van een natuurlijk peil geen sprake is. Als wij de natuur zijn gang laten gaan, dan lagen delen van Fryslân onder de werking van eb en vloed. Er is sprake van een historisch nagespeeld peil zo ongeveer uit 1860. Er is zomaar een datum geprikt vanuit het verleden. Historisch peil zou een betere naam zijn.
Dat nagespeelde peil kent niet de grote afwijkingen uit het verleden, want tegenwoordig kan dat niet meer, omdat de schade veel groter zal zijn dan in 1860. Maar ook de mogelijkheden van planning en beheersing zijn groter geworden. In plaats van de tijd terugzetten uit valse nostalgie moeten wij Fryslân gereed maken voor een toekomstig waterbeheer. Daarvoor kan afstappen van een vast peil en het invoeren van een dynamisch peilbeheer een oplossing bieden. Tegenwoordig geldt een vast peil in de boezem van 52 cm onder NAP. Voor de polders zijn er verschillende winter- en zomerpeilen.
Een flexibel peil is niet goed genoeg. Een flexibel peilbeheer is een vast peil gedurende vaste perioden. Dat is tijdsafhankelijk maar daar schuilt ook het gevaar. In het afgelopen jaar was er sprake van een droge september en een natte november. Indien dan een vast stramien wordt benut voor de herfst: wat wordt het dan?
Dynamisch peilbeheer is een beheer waar op grond van de weersvoorspellingen en weersinvloeden een kwantitatief en kwalitatief evenwicht komt van het water in de verschillende systemen waar Fryslân mee te maken heeft: polder- boezem- Lauwersmeer. Dus niet alleen naar de boezem kijken, maar naar geheel Fryslân inclusief de afstroming Lauwersmeer. Door actief in te spelen op de omstandigheden kan er meer variatie op het vaste peil komen. Dat moet met toetsing in drie criteria in volgorde van belangrijkheid: eerst de veiligheid, dan de ecologie en dan de financiën. De uitkomst moet dan een optimale bediening van de functies betekenen. Niet alleen de landbouw. Nee, alle functies: natuur, recreatie, landbouw en bebouwing.. Dit betekent voor de veiligheid dat de boezem en het Lauwersmeer ’s winters lager staan maar ’s zomers hoger. In het voorjaar kan de boezem hoger zijn voor de rietaangroei en de snoeken, maar als er flinke buien worden verwacht, dan moeten boezem- en polderpeilen omlaag. Voor de financiën kan het betekenen dat ’s nachts de polders worden bemalen op goedkope nachtstroom Een ander beslismodel op grond van veiligheid, ecologie en financiën is nodig.
Afscheid van het vaste peil
Het vaste peil is ruim 40 jaar oud: het is uit 1969. Voorheen was het zomerpeil in de Friese boezem iets lager, in de winter belangrijk hoger: kortom een historisch peil. Door vooral de komst van het Hooglandgemaal werd de boezem meer beheersbaar en is het peil op 52 cm beneden NAP vastgesteld. Wat is er gebeurd sinds 1969? De bodem in de polders zijn gedaald. Oorzaken zijn diepteontwatering en in sommige delen van Fryslân delfstofwinning. Verder is het klimaat veranderd en zal het in de toekomst weer veranderen. Anderzijds is de kennis over weersystemen vergroot. Wij hoeven niet meer naar de wolken te kijken maar kunnen aan de hand van computers 10-15 dagen vooruit voorspellen. Verder is de invloed van de natuur groter geworden. Vooral door de Kaderrichtlijnwater (afgekort tot KRW) voortkomend uit Europees beleid heeft dit een belangrijke rol gekregen. Door de Europese regelgeving moet, als er geen variatie in het peil wordt aangebracht, vervangende maatregelen worden getroffen als compensatie. Dit kan veel geld kosten. Deze maatregelen noemt men mitigerende maatregelen. Mitigatie betekent de oorzaken wegnemen en de gevolgen minimaliseren. Het tegenovergestelde is adaptatie: de gevolgen aanvaarden en zich aan de gevolgen aanpassen en profiteren van de kansen die een veranderend klimaat biedt. Hierdoor zal de kwetsbaarheid voor klimaatveranderingen sterk afnemen.
Dynamisch peil en adaptatie
Bij het toepassen van een dynamisch peil worden de weersfactoren centraal en als onafhankelijke variabele gesteld. Wordt het kwakkelweer of strenge vorst, is er kans op extreme hitte of hevige regenval? Mogelijkheid van zware windstoten in combinatie met zware buien? In totaal zijn er een 25-tal weerbeelden, die echter niet tegelijk optreden. Het aantal wat op een moment in een jaar voorkomt zal ongeveer 3-7 zijn. Voor elk gebied wordt vastgesteld wat de invloed van het weer is. Dat is soms afhankelijk van het seizoen, van de teelt van het gewas, de natuurlijke waarden en graad van bebouwing. Een tweede element dat mee moet werken aan een beter peilbeheer is adaptatie. Niet alleen in de landbouw door bij voorbeeld betere watergangen in de polder, onderwaterdrainage, en peilgestuurde drainage of andere gewaskeuze. Landbouw is wel gewend om met wisselende omstandigheden om te gaan. Maar vooral ook in de natuurgebieden zal er een adaptatie plaats moeten vinden. Het heeft geen zin om vast te houden aan de bestaande planten en dieren als deze verdwijnen uit onze streken, maar ook de waarde weten te schatten van flora en fauna die de plaats innemen. Ook voor de natuurgebieden moeten tabellen over de weersgevolgen komen. Voor elk waterbeheersinggebied (polder, plangebied, boezem, Lauwersmeer) moet de karakteristiek van het weer en de invloed van het weer op het gebied in kaart worden gebracht. Men kan hier berekeningen maken op middellange termijn. In andere publicaties neemt men hiervoor de periode 2010-2040 aan. De mitigerende en adapterende maatregelen worden hierin meegenomen. Het operationele peilbeheer moet worden vastgesteld op grond van een weerverwachting gecombineerd met weerfactoren, welke een peilbeheer opleveren. Door de beslisregels vast te stellen via een toetsing via veiligheid, ecologie en kosten kan voor de functies een optimalisatie plaatsvinden.
Door tijdig en adequate maatregelen te treffen door provincie en wetterskip kunnen veel problemen in de toekomst worden verkomen.
Sjerp de Jong
Feanwâlden
Sjerp de Jong is bestuurder van Wetterskip Fryslân voor Lagere Lasten Burger
Muchas gracias. ?Como puedo iniciar sesion?
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