HET UITVOERINGSPROGRAMMA ZUIDWESTELIJKE DELTA RAMMELT
Door: adviesgroepbormenhuijgens.nl
De waterveiligheid van Nederland vraagt om een zuivere analyse van de planvorming en om afgewogen besluiten. De duurzaamheid van het toekomstig landelijk integraal waterbeheer is afhankelijk van samenhang en de juiste keuzes. Hoe anders kwam het Uitvoeringsprogramma Zuidwestelijke Delta tot stand.
Uitbesteding en gebrek aan zelfreflectie leidden hier tot het star vasthouden aan vooringenomen planvorming. Deze werden door de Stuurgroep ZWD breed in de publiciteit gebracht met eigen publicaties, uitgaven en propaganda. Kostbare jaren, moeite en geld gingen verloren en stagneerden de procesgang naar een klimaatbestendig Nederland. Het landelijk waterbeleid staat met de rug tegen de muur en kan zich geen fouten van dit formaat meer veroorloven. De tijd begint te dringen.
Gebrek aan samenhang
Het Uitvoeringsprogramma ZWD 2010-2015+ zou een fundament, een weloverwogen basis, voor een deelprogramma van een landelijk waterplan moeten zijn. Het werd echter een verbrokkelde presentatie van zeven aparte gebiedsprogramma´s. De gewraakte compartimentering van de deltawateren is hierbij enkel in een andere vorm gegoten. De plankaarten van de gebiedsprogramma´s zijn allemaal nog voorzien van het stempel `in ontwikkeling´. Het programma was en is niet rijp voor consultatie, laat staan voor aanbieding aan het kabinet. Een spectaculaire regiotour in 2010, waarbij de aandacht bewust verlegd werd naar lokale wensen in relatie tot de vermeende planvorming, was eveneens een stap te ver. De organisatie benadrukte tijdens de regiotour, dat de levensvatbaarheid en onderbouwing van de plannen niet ter discussie stonden. De hele planvorming loopt op de muziek vooruit en is weinig in overeenstemming met een adaptief beleid. De gewenste samenhang van een integrale visie ontbreekt.
De rol van de Zuidwestelijke Delta voor de landelijke waterveiligheid
De kwetsbaarheid van onze waterwerken is groot. Bij stormopzet op zee en hevige regenval krijgen de noordelijke provincies spoedig te kampen met wateroverlast. Als er dan ook nog sprake is van piekafvoeren van de rivieren, valt vanuit het noorden geen wezenlijke bijdrage aan de probleemoplossing meer te verwachten. Met de realisatie van de projecten van Ruimte voor de Rivier wordt de doorstroming in het Nederlandse rivierentraject nog eens extra versneld. Alles komt op het bordje van de Zuidwestelijke Delta. De inrichting ervan is hier niet op berekend.
Als vervolgens dijkring 14 doorbreekt gaat het pas echt goed mis. Een overstroming zou het bankroet van Nederland betekenen. Evacuatie van de Randstad blijkt hierbij een onmogelijke opgave. Het is echter niet onmogelijk om de oorzaak te voorkomen. De toekomstige inrichting van de Zuidwestelijke Delta moet hiervoor zorg dragen. Deze cruciale rol voor de nationale waterveiligheid is in het Uitvoeringsprogramma ZWD onderbelicht en onvoldoende uitgewerkt. Een samenhang van de plannen voor de Zuidwestelijke Delta met onder meer Rijnmond en IJsselmeer is een vereiste. Met waterveiligheid valt niet te marchanderen.
Beeld na uitvoeren projecten en maatregelen uitvoeringsprogramma. Bron: Uitvoeringprogramma Zuidwestelijke Delta 2010-2015+, april 2011
Toetsen aan doelen van het Nationaal Waterplan
Het NWP streeft naast waterveiligheid, ook naar garanties voor zoetwatervoorziening en naar estuariene dynamiek. Hierbij vereist het tegengaan van de dreigende rivieropwaartse invloed van de zee en de toenemende verzilting om blijvende zorg.
Dit alles dient in samenhang gestalte te krijgen en dat betekent voor de herinrichting van de Zuidwestelijke Delta het volgende:
Voor de nationale waterveiligheid is een inrichting van de Zuidwestelijke Delta nodig met een maximaal oppervlak aan noodberging en spuimogelijkheden in zee, in combinatie met een goede en korte primaire zeewering.
De zoetwatervoorziening wordt gegarandeerd door het behoud en toename van de zoetwatervoorraden en het beperken van zoetwaterverliezen.
Een compleet estuarium ontwikkelt zich in een open verbindingstraject tussen zee en rivieren, dat met de nodige lengte en regulatiemogelijkheden een geleidelijke en stabiele overgang van zout naar zoet kan waarborgen.
De verzilting van het Volkerak-Zoommeer, het Kierbesluit, de `watermachine´ in de Brouwersdam, Waterstad Rotterdam, gedempt getij, het Volkerak-Zoommeer als eerste noodberging, een complete riviermonding Haringvliet, klimaatbuffer Oesterdam, recreatieve voorzieningen, een gewijzigde zoetwatervoorziening en tal van andere vaak onsamenhangende zaken, werden de afgelopen jaren in de planvorming voor de Zuidwestelijke Delta opgenomen. Dit maakt het uitvoeringsprogramma tot een samenraapsel van oude en nieuwe voornemens.
De illustratie uit het huidige uitvoeringsprogramma toont een streefbeeld waarbij de bestaande zoetwatervoorraden verdwijnen, verzilting alle ruimte krijgt en het merendeel van de deltawateren wordt onttrokken aan een kans op toekomstige estuariene dynamiek.
Hoe men de zaak ook wendt of keert, een invulling van de omschreven doelen is hierin niet te ontdekken. Integendeel.
Het tij is nog altijd te keren
Er is nu nog sprake van papieren producten in de vorm van inrichtingssuggesties, adviesnota’s en onderzoeken. Het cumulatieve effect op andere projecten, dat ontstaat bij het halsstarrig vasthouden van foute keuzes, kan leiden tot kapitaalvernietiging, onveiligheid en milieuschade. Negatieve publiciteit in de media tast vervolgens de geloofwaardigheid van de overheid aan. Het kan geen kwaad om eens kritisch naar de inmiddels gepresenteerde regionale planvorming ZWD te kijken, deze te toetsen op de gestelde doelen en objectief te vergelijken met relevante inrichtingssuggesties. Het verzilten van het Volkerak-Zoommeer is een onnodige en kostbare zaak en beperkt sterk de inrichtingsmogelijkheden voor de Zuidwestelijke Delta. De inrichting van de Zuidwestelijke Delta is op haar beurt cruciaal voor de landelijke waterveiligheid en zoetwatervoorziening.
Het is niet wenselijk dat eerst innovatieve of uitdagende projecten gerealiseerd worden en de overheid vervolgens alsnog aan haar verplichtingen moet voldoen. In deze tijd van economische recessie zal de politiek geen groen licht geven aan planvorming waarvan het rendement sterk betwijfeld wordt. Vanwege haar tegenstrijdigheden met de nationale belangen, is te verwachten dat de het Uitvoeringsprogramma ZWD binnen afzienbare tijd van tafel wordt geschoven.
Alleen wanneer men de wateropgaven als uitgangspunten hanteert, kan men komen tot goede vergelijkingen en afwegingen om gezamenlijk, regionaal en nationaal, te eindigen met een breed gedragen en effectieve inrichtingsvisie.
Adviesgroep Borm & Huijgens – integraal waterbeheer februari 2012
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