| 31-12-2014 | 19:20 uur |
2050
Dhaka Bangladesh
Soms zet het bijwonen van een symposium me aan het denken, omdat wat gepresenteerd wordt me verbijstert. Dat overkwam mij op 10 december in Dordrecht. Ik bezocht het symposium “Smart Thinking #3 – Water; van innovatie naar implementatie” in het Energiehuis en georganiseerd door PLATFORM31.
Wat mij in die bijeenkomst vooral trof was de presentatie van Arno Bouwman. Hij is verbonden aan PBL, het planbureau voor de leefomgeving. De spreker had mij gelijk wakker gemaakt met de start: “wij zijn een onafhankelijke onderzoeksinstelling en wij vallen onder het ministerie I&M“. Onafhankelijk en onder een ministerie vallen gaat er bij mij niet echt in. Dat maakt mij kritisch. Dat laat onverlet dat de spreker dat toch zo kan voelen. Kern van zijn betoog was: de steden staan voor een aanmerkelijke groeispurt en in 2050 woont circa 70 % van de wereldbevolking in steden. Uit het gepresenteerde kaartmateriaal bleek dat die stedelijke groei vooral in de delta’s van de wereld gaat plaatsvinden. De nu vruchtbare delta’s van de Niger, de Nijl, de Zambezi, van de Ganges/Bramaputra, de Mekong, de Sông Hông (de rode rivier), de Jangtsekiang (blauwe rivier), de Huang He (gele rivier), enzovoort huisvesten straks 60 % van de wereldbevolking. Dit stelt de mensheid voor kolossale problemen op het gebied van het waterbeheer, zoals voldoende schoon water, riolering en afvalwaterzuivering. In het licht van de klimaatverandering en stijgende zeespiegel is waterveiligheid ook een probleem. Veel van de delta’s zijn slecht tot nauwelijks beschermd tegen de combinatie zeespiegelstijging en grotere variaties in rivierafvoeren. Een land als Bangladesh staat voor een haast onmogelijke opgave haar meer dan 100 miljoen mensen, die leven in haar delta, te beschermen. Maar één probleem blijft in het rapport, waarop dit alles gebaseerd is, onvermeld. De voedselvoorziening!
Het ruimtebeslag van de groeiende steden gaat vooral ten koste van de vruchtbaarste gronden. De vestiging van de eerste menselijke nederzettingen, waaruit de meeste huidige steden zijn ontwikkeld, vond plaats in de vruchtbaarste delta’s. Kenmerken waren korte aanvoerlijnen van voedsel en de beschikbaarheid van zoet water. Korte afvoerlijnen van afval, dat vaak weer gebruikt kon worden als meststof voor de voedselproductie. Langs de snelwegen van de oudheid en de middeleeuwen, de rivieren, ontstonden de steden als markt- en stapelplaatsen. De wegen waren immers van slechte kwaliteit en vaak maar gedurende delen van het jaar bruikbaar. Ondanks de komst van goede wegen, spoorwegen en luchtverbindingen liggen de meeste (toekomstige) megasteden, die begonnen als dorpen, nog steeds in de van oorsprong vruchtbare delta’s en op de voor voedselproductie meest geschikte gronden. Ook de steden die niet in delta’s liggen hebben bij uitbreidingen vaak de nabije land- en tuinbouwgronden bebouwd. Ook dat waren vaak de beste en productiefste gronden.
Neem ons eigen Bergen op Zoom. De rijke tuinbouwgronden, die vroeger zorgden voor rijke aardbei- en asperge-opbrengsten, zijn bebouwd en de productie van het witte goud is in onze regio sterk verminderd. In de jaren vijftig leerde ik op de lagere school in Rotterdam nog dat de beste en meeste asperges uit Bergen op Zoom kwamen. Dat is helaas lang geleden. Voor mij is het helder de opgave wordt straks niet alleen de waterveiligheid en waterhuishouding van de steden goed te regelen, maar ook hoe voeden we de mensheid als de beste en meest productieve gronden zijn bebouwd. Stadslandbouw is straks geen hobby of ontspanningsbezigheid, maar bittere noodzaak. Of moeten we heel anders gaan denken en dat bebouwen van de delta’s niet als een gegeven beschouwen en gaan kijken of de planologie voor toekomstige uitbreidingen niet volgend moet zijn maar op landelijke/mondiale schaal leidend! Of blijven we er op vertrouwen dat technologie altijd en overal de oplossingen zullen aandragen?
Louis van der Kallen
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